Japan government aims to keep the population at 100 million in 2060s.



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Population-ageing is a phenomenon that occurs, when the median age of a country or region
increases due to rising life expectancy and/or declining birth rates. There has been, initially
in the more economically developed countries, but also more recently in less economically
developed countries, with an increase in the life expectancy which causes ageing population.
This is the case for every country in the world, except for African and some Mideast countries.
In the developing countries, it is apparent that population increased rapidly, causing a grave
problem of environmental pollution, such as global warming. This phenomenon might increase
as industrialization proceeds.


Picture source:「Newsweek:日本語版」November 23, 2011


In Japan, the nation's total fertility rate, the number of children a woman gives birth to in
her lifetime was 1.41 in 2012. If the birthrate remains low, it may fall to about 87 million
in the 2060s. A government-appointed panel has proposed measures to counter Japan's rapid
decline in population with a goal of "stabilizing the population" at around 100 million in 50 years.
The expert panel called on the government, headed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to combat
a population decline.

The government will increase a financial aid to the third child for the costs of childbirth and
child care, to support the pension-payment program by lowering the ratio of the elderly
population to the numbers of youth workers.

Resource on earth is limited, and the space we can live. In order to sustain the present
environment and an abundant life-style, a certain degree of the population control
measure is required. The policy aimed to increase the population for the pension-systems is
a unicellular concept. It seems that the elderly-and-young population ratio would be
significantly declined after 30 years. The number of Japanese people might be ideal
on the 87 million level, which data is expected when the present birth rate remains.

If we keep to continue taking the aid for population growth, it would certainly lead
the environmental deterioration over the earth.
The place we can live in space is only on the Earth.




The graph showed estimated and projected populations of the world and its continents (except Antarctica) from 1950 to 2100.
The shaded regions correspond to range of projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.


安倍晋三内閣は「経済財政運営の指針」で50年後の日本の人口を1億人とする目標を掲げて対策を
講じる。その一環として第3子からの出産、保育の給付金を増やすなどして出生率を高めて人口の
増加を目指す。その大きな目的は高齢者人口の比率を下げて年金支払いなどの問題を解決すること
にある。確かに先進工業国のゆるやかな人口減少傾向は続いているが、その一方で開発途上国の
人口が急速に増加し、環境汚染、地球温暖化などの由々しき問題を引き起こしている。

地球上の資源は限られており、そこに居住する人々が豊かな生活を送るためには、ある程度の
人口抑制策が必要である。単に年金問題のために人口を増やすのはあまりにも短絡的である。
高齢者の比率が労働人口に対して高くなる現状では確かに財政は苦しいことは理解できるが、
高齢者と若者との比率は20年後、30年後には大きく変化し、高齢者比率は明らかに低下し、
このままでも問題は自然に解消する。50年後の日本人の数が8,700万人となれば、今より
自然豊かな生活を過ごせるかも知れない。

それとも地球上の人口をこのまま増やして、やがては地球そのものを破滅させる事態を招いても
良いのだろうか。日本政府が人口増加政策をとるとすれば、それは大きな過ちである。


Junhaku Miyamoto, M.D.,PhD: June 10, 2014


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